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Canada

Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs


MP elect: Marc Miller (LPC)

Latest projection: May 18, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs


Liberal Marc Miller*
Conservative Steve Shanahan
NDP Suzanne Dufresne
Green Nathe Perrone
Bloc Quebecois Kevin Majaducon
Rhinoceros Giovanni Di Placido

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs 63% ± 6% LPC 19% ± 5% CPC 9% ± 4% BQ 6% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 63.0% 338Canada vote projection | May 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | May 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs

LPC 63% ± 6% CPC 19% ± 5% NDP 6% ± 3% BQ 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 18, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 35% CPC 22% NDP 21% BQ 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 35% CPC 23% NDP 21% BQ 14% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 36% CPC 23% NDP 21% BQ 14% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 37% CPC 22% NDP 21% BQ 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 41% CPC 20% NDP 19% BQ 12% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 44% CPC 20% NDP 17% BQ 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 47% CPC 20% NDP 15% BQ 12% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 50% CPC 19% NDP 14% BQ 11% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 51% CPC 19% NDP 13% BQ 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 53% CPC 18% NDP 12% BQ 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 55% CPC 18% NDP 11% BQ 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 56% CPC 18% NDP 11% BQ 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 56% CPC 18% NDP 11% BQ 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 56% CPC 18% NDP 11% BQ 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 56% CPC 17% NDP 11% BQ 10% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 56% CPC 17% NDP 11% BQ 10% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 58% CPC 17% NDP 9% BQ 9% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 59% CPC 17% BQ 9% NDP 9% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 59% CPC 17% BQ 9% NDP 9% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 59% CPC 17% BQ 9% NDP 9% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 60% CPC 17% BQ 8% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 60% CPC 17% BQ 8% NDP 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 61% CPC 17% BQ 8% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 62% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 63% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 7% BQ 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 7% BQ 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 65% CPC 16% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 65% CPC 16% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 65% CPC 16% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 64% CPC 16% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 9% BQ 7% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 61% CPC 18% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 60% CPC 19% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 60% CPC 19% NDP 9% BQ 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 59% CPC 19% NDP 9% BQ 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 59% CPC 20% NDP 9% BQ 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 61% CPC 19% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 63% CPC 19% BQ 9% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 63% CPC 19% BQ 9% NDP 6% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 63% CPC 19% BQ 9% NDP 6% 2025-05-18 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 18, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 63% ± 6% 54.6% 51.4% 63.0% CPC 19% ± 5% 9.3% 12.8% 19.0% BQ 9% ± 4% 12.3% 11.9% 9.3% NDP 6% ± 3% 15.0% 18.1% 6.0% GPC 2% ± 2% 6.9% 2.7% 2.1% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.0% 2.6% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.
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